Netbook Trends post Pine Trail and CES

The CES that took place in January of 2010 was newsworthy in the netbook space for a number of reasons, but the major ones were:

  1. probably the biggest was the official launch of Intel’s new Pine Trail series of processors which spawned almost every netbook manufacturer to release a model featuring it. The new chip didn’t offer any noticeable performance upgrade, but included a shared graphics platform which significantly boosted netbook battery lives. The ASUS Seashell PU17 is a prime example with a battery life in excess of 12 hours.
  2. a first look at a series of hybrid creations from Lenovo which have the potential to change the mobile computing space. These include the Lenovo Skylight smartbook (a combination of the smartphone and netbook) and the super-trendy Lenovo IdeaPad U1 which morphs from netbook to tablet instantaneously.

Taking into account the releases, impending other products like the iPad and the amazon bestsellers list (for changing trends) we’ve noticed a few things and think a few other things may happen shortly.

  • Switching over to new generation netbooks. Even though they’re not that much of an improvement, most feature the Windows 7 which is a definite winner. Prices aren’t much higher either. See the ASUS 1005PE for example at $328.
  • More strongly specced netbooks. Whereas a lot of netbooks have artificially lower specifications because of restrictions from Microsoft or Intel, these will fade with a number of other options growing in popularity. The climb of the significantly more expensive ASUS 1201N into the top 5 in the netbook bestsellers list is proof of the same. The 1201N features an improved processor, more RAM and a better graphics platform (Nvidia).
  • Tablet baloney. Everyone’s predicting that 2010 is going to be the year of the tablet, but we think it’s just hype. People use netbooks for functionality and a tablet just doesn’t cut it as a working piece of computer equipment. Something like Lenovo’s U1 though may do well, as it allows users to move between platforms. But then again it costs as much as buying a netbook and a tablet!
  • Rise of the iPad. OK, we know the last point says tablets won’t work but we don’t consider any Apple product so generically. Apple’s iPad will be significantly different from others, taking into account the application base, fanatic fans and just the general goodwill they’ve built up over the past 10 years. And the iPad is a recreational tool that people will be happy to spend on. We totally believe that users may go out and purchase a netbook AND an iPad.
  • Cheaper Netbooks. We’re seeing much cheaper netbooks with lower specifications, but now and again we’ll see a well proportioned device at a great rate. Take for example the Acer eMachines that were out during Christmas 2009 for under $200 (now back to $280). Someone’s going to figure out a way to make netbooks cheaper and this price will then become an industry standard.

We shy away from making too many predictions, because the beauty of the world is that you can’t predict much anyways. (Yes the small stuff maybe, but the big stuff? the Internet, the rise of Hitler, the fall of England – not really.)

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